"Well I remember what my neighbor sold their house for in 2007". So what? I remember what I weighed in high school. It has nothing to do with me now. 2007 home prices should not be part of the pricing process for your home now.
The home-buying hysteria of 2005-2007 is over, as well as all the easy-credit mortgage programs. well many states have taken it on the chin in valuation. The "sand states" - Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada saw property values plummet as much as 60% off the highs. For most areas, drops of 10-20% are common. Despite new upticks in indicators, such as the Case-Schiller index, there is still significant pressure on home prices. The biggest culprit is foreclosures. They are up 19% over last year, and with unemployment predicted to remain in the 9-11% range for 2010, we can expect foreclosure rates to stay high.
Foreclosures used to be a rarity; now they dominate the news, and worse, they heavily affect home valuations when it comes to appraisals. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's is quoted: "I think more price declines are arrival because the foreclosure emergency is not over". This is presume whole one to list aggressively now. It is unrealistic to hope prices will rebound. Granted, there are areas that are bucking the trend - parts of Texas, Iowa, Nebraska and some other states have seen modest price increases. The consensus is that the earliest we will see 2005-06 prices will be 2014, and for some hard-hit areas, it may be 2020. Agreeing to Fiserv, a financial data firm, home prices are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets while the next 12 months.
Yes, the tax credits available for home buyers are exciting, and it should excite possible home sellers too. The home affordability index is at the highest it has been in four decades. The index is a estimation that includes mortgage rates and property prices, measured against current incomes. We know nothing this good can last forever, and that includes the tax credits. The credits expire April 30, 2010. What incentive will buyers have after that date?
The third presume for sellers to list aggressively now is a bit less known. Since December of 2008, the Fed has been the sole purchaser of mortgage-backed securities (Mbs). With Fnma and Freddie Mac being owned by the government now, the Fed is the buyer of mortgages. There is no secondary market for these mortgages. The aggressive buy schedule initiated in 2008 (over 1 trillion dollars worth) expires at the end of March, 2010. It was recently extended to March, so I do not foresee someone else extension.
We can expect rates to rise speedily and significantly in the first quarter of 2010. Why should sellers care? comprehend that a 1-point rise in mortgage rates gives the buyer a higher monthly payment, even if property prices were to drop 10%. That means the home is less affordable, or in the perception of the buyer, more expensive. Incorporate this fact with tightening loan guidelines (more stringent debt-to-income ratios, etc.) there is a real emergency to list appropriately now.
I am not advocating going into a panic - far from it. But as a certified mortgage planner I have a accountability to my clients to furnish them options in their real estate transactions. The realtors I partner with depend on truthful information. Home owners will be best served if all complex in the real estate profession have candid conversations now with our clients.
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